Thursday, Sep 3, 4:50 AM CDT - FINAL UPDATE - Edouard is done. The Weather Prediction Center issued its last advisory at 4 AM Thursday: the remnants are about 40 miles southeast of Dallas and will dissipate within 24 hours. The Flood Watch for Houston and Southeast Texas expired overnight. Final storm recap: Edouard made landfall Tuesday afternoon about 5 miles west of Port Arthur with 50 mph winds, weakened to a depression Tuesday night, then stalled over the Piney Woods and turned into a rainmaker - 3 to 10 inches fell across Southeast Texas in 24 hours, with 10 to 15+ inches measured in Liberty and Polk counties and a rare High risk (Level 4 of 4) for flash flooding issued Wednesday. Maximum storm totals inland could reach 22 inches, and isolated moderate to major river flooding is still expected in East Texas. Another 2 to 4 inches may fall across northeast Texas Thursday - outside the Houston area. This page now stays up as the archive record of the storm.
Wednesday, Sep 2, 4:50 PM CDT - WPC's 4 PM advisory: Edouard is down to 25 mph winds about 35 miles northwest of Lufkin and will dissipate Thursday, but the rainfall keeps escalating - maximum storm totals are now up to 22 inches for inland east-central Texas, and WPC says additional significant flash flooding is likely over the Piney Woods with isolated moderate to MAJOR river flooding expected. WPC also upgraded THURSDAY's outlook: Southeast Texas moves from Marginal to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) excessive-rainfall risk, meaning the flash-flood threat continues through Thursday morning even as the depression falls apart. The Flood Watch runs through Thursday morning.
Wednesday, Sep 2, 10:15 AM CDT - The flood situation is getting worse, not better. WPC's 10 AM advisory leads with significant flash flooding ongoing across East Texas and raised storm totals again: 5 to 10 inches with maximums up to 20 inches for inland areas from the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas. NWS Houston/Galveston EXTENDED the Flood Watch through Thursday morning: a 3 to 10 inch swath has already fallen across Southeast Texas in the last 24 hours, with pockets of 10 to 15+ inches measured in Liberty and Polk counties. Edouard's remnants have stalled over the Piney Woods, and another 2 to 6 inches (isolated 10 to 12) is possible over the next 24 hours with rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour. NWS explicitly warns people in flood-prone areas to be ready to act when Flash Flood Warnings are issued, including emergency-alert warnings for considerable or catastrophic flooding.
Wednesday, Sep 2, 8:45 AM CDT - The Weather Prediction Center just upgraded part of Southeast Texas to a HIGH risk (Level 4 of 4, its highest category) for excessive rainfall today. The High-risk zone covers the Piney Woods and areas north of Houston - Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk and surrounding counties - right where Edouard's slow-moving depression is sitting and rainbands are training. High risk means at least a 70 percent chance of rainfall rates exceeding flash-flood guidance within 25 miles of any point in that zone. The Houston metro remains in the surrounding Moderate (Level 3 of 4) area. High-risk days are rare and are when most flood fatalities and worst damage occur - if you are in or north of the city, take this seriously and stay off flooded roads.
Wednesday, Sep 2, 4:15 AM CDT - The Weather Prediction Center issued its first advisory on Edouard (Advisory 8) and RAISED the rainfall forecast: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals up to 12 inches from the Upper Texas coast inland through east-central Texas, up from 3 to 7. The depression, centered about 30 miles south-southwest of Lufkin with 35 mph winds, is slowing down - now moving north-northwest at just 5 mph - which keeps rain over the same areas longer. WPC keeps the flash-flood risk at Moderate (Level 3 of 4) for today. NWS Houston/Galveston reissued the Flood Watch at 3:31 AM, still with life-threatening language, running through this evening; the highest risk is the Piney Woods north of I-10 and along/east of I-45, with training feeder bands possible elsewhere. Edouard is expected to dissipate tonight; Thursday's flood risk drops to Marginal as it does.
Wednesday, Sep 2, 12:40 AM CDT - NWS Houston/Galveston reissued the Flood Watch late Tuesday night with sharper numbers: 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated totals of 10 to 15 inches, highest along and east of I-45, and rainfall rates that could exceed 3 to 4 inches per hour in the heaviest downpours. NWS says flash flooding is likely, considerable flash flooding is possible, and there is an increased danger to lives and property. The watch runs through Wednesday evening for the Houston metro and Southeast Texas.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 10:00 PM CDT - Advisory 7: Edouard has weakened to a tropical depression, centered about 40 miles northwest of Beaumont with 35 mph winds, moving northwest at 8 mph. The National Hurricane Center discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning - there are no coastal watches or warnings left anywhere along the Texas or Louisiana coasts. This is NHC's last advisory on Edouard; the Weather Prediction Center takes over rainfall forecasts at 4 AM Wednesday. The flood threat is not over: rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches with isolated 12-inch amounts are still expected from the Upper Texas coast inland through east-central Texas, the Flood Watch with life-threatening language runs through Wednesday evening, and the flash-flood risk is Moderate (Level 3 of 4) both tonight and Wednesday. A tornado or two is still possible tonight in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Dissipation is expected by Wednesday night.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 8:35 PM CDT - Two significant changes this evening. First, the Weather Prediction Center upgraded TONIGHT's excessive-rainfall outlook to Level 3 of 4 (Moderate) for the Upper Texas coast and much of the Houston area - at least a 40 percent chance of rainfall rates exceeding flash-flood guidance within 25 miles of any point in the risk zone through Wednesday morning. Wednesday's outlook stays at Moderate too. Second, with Edouard weakening inland over the Beaumont area (45 mph winds), NWS Houston/Galveston canceled all tropical cyclone watches and warnings for Southeast Texas, and Galveston's Coastal Flood Warning has ended; a Tropical Storm Warning remains only from High Island to Cameron, Louisiana. The Flood Watch - still carrying life-threatening flash flooding language - runs through Wednesday evening, a Wind Advisory continues for the far eastern counties, and a tornado or two is still possible this evening in far eastern Southeast Texas.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 7:00 PM CDT - Intermediate Advisory 6A: Edouard's center is passing over the Beaumont metro area, about 10 miles northwest of Beaumont, with maximum sustained winds down to 45 mph. The Tropical Storm Warning was trimmed again - it now covers only High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana, so Galveston and points west are no longer under it. The Beaumont/Port Arthur airport measured a 69 mph gust just before the center passed overhead. The rainfall forecast is unchanged: 3 to 7 inches with isolated 12-inch totals from the Upper Texas coast inland through east-central Texas, and NWS still warns of potentially life-threatening flash flooding. A tornado or two is possible this evening across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Edouard is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and dissipate by Wednesday night.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 6:30 PM CDT - The flood outlook got worse for tomorrow. The Weather Prediction Center upgraded Wednesday to a Level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk for excessive rainfall over Southeast Texas and the Upper Texas coast - the zone where Edouard's rainbands and residual tropical moisture keep training. NWS Houston/Galveston's latest statement now warns of potential life-threatening rainfall flooding with extensive impacts, including major flooding that could prompt many evacuations and rescues. Edouard's center is about 60 miles northeast of Galveston, still a 50 mph tropical storm, with rainbands moving across the region through tonight and more scattered heavy rain Wednesday.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 4:00 PM CDT - Landfall: Edouard's center is just inland, about 5 miles west of Port Arthur, still with 50 mph winds and a 998 mb pressure. Two flood escalations landed with it: NHC raised its rainfall forecast to 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals up to 12 inches, warning that significant flash flooding is possible, and NWS Houston/Galveston now headlines the Flood Watch as a potential for LIFE-THREATENING flash flooding, expanding it to include Brazos, Grimes, Madison, Trinity, Walker and Waller counties. The Tropical Storm Warning was trimmed back to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line. Edouard should weaken to a depression tonight and dissipate by Wednesday night - but the heaviest rain for Houston runs from now through tonight.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 1:00 PM CDT - Edouard is at the doorstep: 25 miles southeast of Port Arthur and 20 miles west-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, with landfall expected shortly. Winds hold at 50 mph. In a sign the worst-case wind and surge scenarios are off the table, NHC discontinued the Hurricane Watch and the Storm Surge Warning - the surge threat transitions to a Coastal Flood Warning from local NWS offices. The Tropical Storm Warning (Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish line) and the Houston-area Flood Watch through Wednesday evening remain in effect. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the warned coast now, and the focus for the Houston area shifts fully to rainfall: heaviest bands this afternoon through tonight, with flash flooding the main risk.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 10:00 AM CDT - Hurricane Hunters find Edouard strengthening: winds are up to 50 mph and pressure down to 1000 mb, with the center just 50 miles southeast of Port Arthur and 30 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, moving northwest at 8 mph. Continued intensification is expected before landfall today - NHC's hurricane watch window is now down to the next 6 hours. Watches and warnings are unchanged, but NWS Houston/Galveston extended the Flood Watch: it now runs through Wednesday evening for the Houston metro and Southeast Texas.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 8:15 AM CDT - The Weather Prediction Center's morning outlook keeps a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for flash flooding over the Upper Texas coast into southwest Louisiana today, centered on the landfall zone. That lines up with the local forecast: the heaviest rain arrives this afternoon and tonight with rates up to 3-4 inches per hour, and the Flood Watch for the Houston metro runs through Wednesday morning.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 7:00 AM CDT - Edouard is closing in: 70 miles east-southeast of Port Arthur and 40 miles south-southeast of Cameron, Louisiana at 7 AM, moving west-northwest at 8 mph. Winds remain 40 mph but the central pressure is falling (1003 mb) and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now. NHC still forecasts significant strengthening before landfall later today. No changes to watches and warnings.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 4:30 AM CDT - Landfall day, and the timeline moved up. Edouard's outer rainbands are already reaching the coast near High Island and Galveston, and NWS Houston/Galveston now expects landfall near Sabine, Texas early this afternoon as a strong tropical storm. The Flood Watch was expanded to cover more of the Houston area - now including Brazoria, Fort Bend, and Walker counties among others - and is in effect now through Wednesday morning, with rain beginning this morning and locally heavy totals of 6 to 9+ inches possible. The Tropical Storm Warning was extended inland to include southern Liberty County. NHC's 4 AM advisory has Edouard at 29.0N 92.8W, about 90 miles southeast of Port Arthur, moving west-northwest at 8 mph with 40 mph winds, and says it is 'poised to significantly strengthen' and could approach hurricane strength before landfall later today.
Tuesday, Sep 1, 1:00 AM CDT - Overnight update: Hurricane Hunters located Edouard's center near 28.8N 92.5W, about 115 miles southeast of Port Arthur and 85 miles southeast of Cameron, Louisiana, still moving west-northwest at 7 mph. Winds remain 40 mph with a 1005 mb central pressure, and no watches or warnings changed. NHC expects strengthening today, with tropical storm conditions reaching the coast this morning and landfall on the Upper Texas coast later today - NWS Lake Charles expects the center near or west of Sabine, Texas. Rain starts in earnest across the Houston area overnight, with the Flood Watch in effect from 1 AM through Wednesday morning.
Monday, Aug 31, 10:00 PM CDT - Big escalation in NHC's 10 PM advisory. The Storm Surge Watch was upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning from High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line - NHC calls this a life-threatening situation and urges people in the warning area to follow local evacuation instructions. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from High Island to Cameron, Louisiana, because Edouard could approach hurricane strength before reaching the coast Tuesday. The peak surge forecast rose again, to 3 to 5 feet above ground from High Island into south-central Louisiana. Edouard is at 28.6N 91.8W, about 155 miles southeast of Port Arthur, moving west-northwest at 7 mph with 40 mph winds and a 1005 mb central pressure. Tropical storm conditions reach the coast within the warning area by Tuesday morning. Rainfall forecast is unchanged: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 9, with flash flooding likely and river flooding possible.
Monday, Aug 31, 7:00 PM CDT - It's official: the system is now Tropical Storm Edouard. NHC's 7 PM advisory reports maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, with the center near 28.4N 91.6W - about 175 miles southeast of Port Arthur and 140 miles southeast of Cameron, Louisiana - moving west-northwest at 6 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 25 miles from the center, and additional strengthening is expected before Edouard reaches the northwest Gulf coast Tuesday. No changes to watches and warnings: the Tropical Storm Warning (Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish line) and Storm Surge Watch (High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line) remain in effect. NWS Houston/Galveston also pinned the Flood Watch start to 1 AM Tuesday, running through Wednesday morning.
Monday, Aug 31, 4:00 PM CDT - NHC's 4 PM advisory escalated the coastal threat: a Storm Surge Watch is now in effect from High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line, and the Tropical Storm Warning was extended east to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish line in Louisiana. The peak surge forecast rose to 2 to 4 feet above ground from High Island into south-central Louisiana, with 1 to 3 feet toward Morgan City. TD Five is near 28.2N 91.5W, about 185 miles southeast of Port Arthur, moving west-northwest at 6 mph with 35 mph winds and a 1011 mb central pressure. NHC says it will likely become Tropical Storm Edouard this evening, with tropical storm conditions reaching the coast by Tuesday morning and the center moving inland over Southeast Texas Tuesday night. The rainfall forecast is unchanged: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 9.
Monday, Aug 31, 1:00 PM CDT - Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a closed circulation in the Gulf system, and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Depression Five. The center is near 28.0N 90.8W, about 120 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana - roughly 260 miles east-southeast of Galveston - drifting west-northwest at just 5 mph with 35 mph winds and a central pressure of 1012 mb. Watches and warnings are unchanged. NHC still expects it to become Tropical Storm Edouard tonight before reaching the Upper Texas coast Tuesday. NWS Houston/Galveston's updated local statement keeps the rainfall forecast at 3 to 5 inches with isolated 6 to 9 inches east of I-45, with rates over 3 to 4 inches per hour in the heaviest downpours.
Monday, Aug 31, 10:26 AM CDT - NWS Houston/Galveston issued its first Tropical Cyclone Local Statement for PTC Five. The Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect locally for Bolivar Peninsula and Chambers County, with the center about 250 miles east-southeast of Galveston. Forecasters expect 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated 6 to 9 inch totals east of I-45, and rainfall rates topping 3 to 4 inches per hour in the heaviest downpours - the kind of rates that overwhelm street drainage and trigger flash flooding. NWS warns moderate rainfall flooding could prompt evacuations and rescues mainly east of I-45, with some road and bridge closures possible. The Flood Watch for the Houston metro runs from late tonight through Wednesday morning.
Monday, Aug 31, 10:00 AM CDT - Advisories began on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five (the system formerly tagged AL97). A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line in Louisiana. The center is about 230 miles southeast of Port Arthur, moving west-northwest at 5 mph with 35 mph winds, and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Edouard by tonight. NHC rainfall call: 3 to 6 inches with isolated 9-inch totals from the Upper Texas coast into east-central Texas, plus 1 to 3 feet of storm surge from High Island into southwest Louisiana.
Monday, Aug 31, 10:15 AM CDT - A Flood Watch is now in effect for the Houston metro and Southeast Texas from late tonight through Wednesday morning: 3 to 5 inches of rain, isolated 6 to 9 inches, with rates over 3 to 4 inches per hour in the heaviest downpours.
Monday, Aug 31, 8:00 AM CDT - NHC's morning outlook gave the system (then AL97) a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the Upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast Tuesday, with Hurricane Hunters investigating during the morning.
Monday, Aug 31, 7:52 AM CDT - NWS Houston/Galveston placed the region east of the Brazos River - including Houston and Galveston - under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
