AL97 Tracker: Gulf Disturbance Heads for Houston and the Upper Texas Coast Tuesday
AL97 Tracker: Gulf Disturbance Heads for Houston and the Upper Texas Coast Tuesday
Last updated: Monday, August 31, 2026 at 8:45 AM CDT. This is a living tracker. We update this page as new National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service information comes in - newest developments are always at the top. Bookmark the URL; it won't change.
Houston, you've got about 24 hours of runway. A tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf - tagged AL97 by the National Hurricane Center - is drifting toward the Upper Texas coast, and it's bringing the kind of rain rates that flood streets: 3 to 4 inches an hour in the heaviest downpours. Here's everything we know right now, and we'll keep this page current as the forecast evolves.
Latest Updates
Monday, Aug 31, 8:00 AM CDT - The National Hurricane Center's morning Tropical Weather Outlook gives AL97 a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the Upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast on Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating the system this morning, and NHC says tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued for parts of the coast later today.
Monday, Aug 31, 7:52 AM CDT - NWS Houston/Galveston placed the region east of the Brazos River - including Houston and Galveston - under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The office forecasts widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain tonight through Wednesday, with isolated 6 to 9 inch totals possible east of I-45.
What Is AL97, and Where Is It Going?
AL97 is a tropical disturbance sitting a little over 100 miles south of the Louisiana coast, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to come ashore somewhere along the Upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast on Tuesday.
As of Monday morning, the low is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms and showing signs of organization as it drifts slowly west-northwest. Whether or not it gets a name matters less than what it carries: deep tropical moisture aimed squarely at Southeast Texas. The Hurricane Hunters are sampling it this morning, and their data will sharpen the forecast by this afternoon.
When Does the Rain Hit Houston?
Scattered showers and storms start tonight, coverage increases through Tuesday morning, and the heaviest rain falls Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.
| When | What to expect |
|---|---|
| Tonight (Mon into Tue) | Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop and increase in coverage |
| Tuesday morning - evening | Heaviest rain of the event; rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour in the strongest downpours; flash flooding most likely |
| Wednesday | Showers and storms continue before tapering; Slight Risk for excessive rainfall remains east of the Brazos River |
The repeat-storm scenario is the one to watch: if strong cells keep moving over the same neighborhoods, flash flooding follows fast. That's exactly the pattern that turns a manageable rain day into a bad one on Houston streets.
How Much Rain Will Houston Get?
The NWS Houston/Galveston forecast calls for widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain across the area tonight through Wednesday, with isolated totals of 6 to 9 inches - highest along and east of I-45.
| Area | Forecast storm total (Mon-Wed) |
|---|---|
| Houston metro | 2-3 inches, locally higher |
| East of I-45 (Baytown, Liberty, Anahuac) | 3-6 inches |
| Galveston and the coast | 3-4 inches |
| West of I-45 (College Station, Wharton, Columbus) | 0.5-1.5 inches |
Two things can be true at once: the mapped totals for the city core look modest, and the office-wide call is 3 to 5 inches with isolated 6 to 9. The difference is banding - wherever the heaviest rain bands set up and stall, that's who gets the big number. You won't know your number until it falls, which is why the prep matters more than the forecast.
Which Areas Have the Highest Flood Risk?
The highest flash-flood risk sits east of the Brazos River, and especially along and east of I-45, where both NWS Houston and the Weather Prediction Center carry a Slight Risk - level 2 of 4 - for excessive rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A Slight Risk means scattered flash flooding is possible. With rain rates of 3 to 4 inches an hour, street drainage in any Houston neighborhood can be overwhelmed in under an hour - the usual suspects are underpasses, low-water crossings, feeder roads, and anywhere bayous or ditches are already running high from earlier rounds.
If you want the address-level view, start with your neighborhood flood report - flood history, elevation, and mapped risk for your part of town. Our Harris County flood-risk page has the countywide picture. And if you're wondering how a few inches of rain compares to the benchmark, our Harvey nine-year lookback explains why rates matter as much as totals.
Could AL97 Become Tropical Storm Edouard?
Possibly, but briefly - the National Hurricane Center gives AL97 a 70% chance of developing before it reaches the coast Tuesday, and if it strengthens into a tropical storm it will be named Edouard.
Time over water is short, so a hurricane is not in the cards: NHC expects at most a short-lived depression or tropical storm. If the Hurricane Hunters find a closed circulation this morning, expect watches or warnings for parts of the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts later today. The practical takeaway doesn't change either way - this is a heavy-rain event for Houston first and a wind event second, if at all.
What To Do Before Tuesday Morning
You have today to get ready. The short list:
- Move vehicles off flood-prone streets and out of low spots before Tuesday's morning commute.
- Clear leaves and debris from the storm drains and ditches in front of your home today.
- Plan Tuesday travel around the rain: the worst window is morning through evening. If you can shift a commute or an appointment, do it.
- Never drive through high water. Six inches of moving water can knock you down; a foot can float a car. Turn around.
- Keep official alerts on: NWS Houston/Galveston (weather.gov/hgx) and ReadyHarris. If a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area, act on it.
- Check your address on FloodMaps to see your neighborhood's flood history and mapped risk before the rain starts.
Quick Answers
Will AL97 hit Houston? The center is forecast to come ashore Tuesday along the Upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast. Houston sits squarely in the heavy-rain zone regardless of exactly where landfall happens.
How much rain will Houston get from AL97? Widespread 3 to 5 inches tonight through Wednesday, with isolated totals of 6 to 9 inches possible, highest along and east of I-45.
When is the worst of it? Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.
Could AL97 become a hurricane? No. The National Hurricane Center expects at most a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm before landfall Tuesday.
Is this another Harvey? No. Harvey stalled over Southeast Texas for four days and dropped 30 to 60 inches. AL97 is moving, and this is a one-to-two-day heavy-rain event. Serious for street flooding, but not a multi-day stall.
We'll keep updating this page as new NHC advisories and NWS forecasts land - the newest information will always be at the top. Stay dry, Houston, and keep to the high ground.