Hurricane Isaias: Florida Panhandle Landfall Tracker

Saturday, Oct 10, 4:00 AM CDT - FINAL ADVISORY (15): Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is centered at 32.0N 86.5W, about 25 miles SSW of Montgomery, Alabama and 105 miles south of Birmingham. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph, minimum pressure 1002 mb, moving north at 14 mph. NHC discontinued all Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings, so no watches or warnings are in effect, and says water levels will continue to recede along the Florida Gulf Coast. Isaias is forecast to weaken slowly today and dissipate on Sunday while moving across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley. Rain of 4-8 inches (locally 15) and the flash flood threat continue. This was the last public advisory NHC will issue on this system.

Friday, Oct 9, 9:24 PM EDT (8:24 PM CDT) - HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL: The Weather Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, valid 8 PM CDT Friday through 7 AM CDT Saturday, carries a High Risk (level 4 of 4) of excessive rainfall from the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia. WPC says numerous instances of flash flooding are likely, some of them significant. A Moderate Risk covers the Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama near the storm's track. WPC points to a training band of heavy rain expected over the Big Bend from about 1 AM CDT onward. Source: NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

Saturday, Oct 10, 1:00 AM CDT - Advisory 14A: Isaias is now a post-tropical cyclone, moving over southern Alabama at 31.5N 86.5W, about 80 miles NNE of Pensacola and 55 miles SSW of Montgomery. Maximum sustained winds are 65 mph, minimum pressure 1000 mb, moving north at 20 mph. NHC discontinued the Storm Surge Warning west of the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa County Line and the Hurricane Warning west of the Alabama/Florida line, and changed the Hurricane Warning east of that line to the Bay/Gulf County Line to a Tropical Storm Warning. Surge forecast is now 2-4 ft from the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa County Line to the Suwannee River. NHC says the flash flooding and strong wind threat spreads farther inland, and Isaias is expected to weaken below gale force later today.

Friday, Oct 9, 10:00 PM CDT - Advisory 14: Isaias is moving over the western Florida Panhandle at 30.8N 86.5W, about 45 miles ENE of Pensacola and 65 miles NW of Panama City. Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 90 mph, minimum pressure 982 mb, moving north at 20 mph. NHC discontinued the Hurricane Warning west of the Mississippi/Alabama border, the Tropical Storm Warning west of Ocean Springs, MS, the Storm Surge Warning west of Dauphin Island, AL, and the Storm Surge Watch east of the Suwannee River. Surge forecast is now 3-5 ft from Dauphin Island to the Aucilla River. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles into southern Alabama. NHC says damaging winds and flash flooding threat spread inland. Next advisory: 1 AM CDT.

Friday, Oct 9, 7:14 PM CDT (posted 8:55 PM) - FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY: NWS Mobile declared a Flash Flood Emergency for southern and coastal Okaloosa County, Florida, including Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso, Mary Esther and Shalimar, in effect until 1:15 AM CDT Saturday. Radar showed 4 to 7 inches of rain had already fallen, with rainfall rates of 3 to 5 inches in one hour. NWS calls it a particularly dangerous situation with life-threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. NWS says to move to higher ground now and not to travel unless fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Source: NWS Mobile, via api.weather.gov.

Friday, Oct 9, 8:30 PM CDT - LANDFALL: NWS Doppler radar data indicate Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, around 8:30 PM CDT (0130 UTC) with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and an estimated minimum central pressure of 971 mb. NHC's 8:30 PM position: 30.4N 86.5W, about 40 miles east of Pensacola and 50 miles WNW of Panama City, moving north at 19 mph. A NOAA gauge at Panama City Beach reported a water level 5.6 feet above mean higher high water. A gust to 116 mph (sustained 91 mph) was reported at a WeatherFlow station near Santa Rosa Sound, and a gust to 100 mph (sustained 63 mph) at a WeatherSTEM station near Pensacola. NHC warns of life-threatening storm surge along the Gulf Coast as dangerous hurricane conditions and flash flooding spread inland.

Friday, Oct 9, 8:00 PM CDT - NHC position update: Isaias is at 30.2N 86.5W, about 50 miles ESE of Pensacola and 50 miles west of Panama City, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, a minimum central pressure of 971 mb, moving north at 19 mph. A NOAA water level gauge at Panama City Beach reported 5.4 feet above mean higher high water, and a gust to 102 mph (sustained 62 mph) was reported at Pensacola City Hall. NHC has not yet reported landfall.

Friday, Oct 9, 7:00 PM CDT - Intermediate Advisory 13A: Isaias is a 110 mph hurricane, 967 mb, about 45 miles southeast of Pensacola, moving north at 18 mph. Landfall on the western Florida Panhandle is expected within the next hour or two. We'll add each new NHC advisory here with its time.